Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Parva Liga (Bulgaria) results 2026/2027

Every Parva Liga (Bulgaria) match played this season, newest first, with the xG each side created and the home, draw and away probabilities the model held before kickoff.

xG reading

All Went with the xG Went against the xG

Model record

Most likely outcome landed in 11 of 21 matches (52%). The probabilities implied about 10 (47%). Brier score 0.56 (reference 0.69; lower is better). How the model works →

Home
Draw
Away

What happened Most likely outcome Upset

Sunday, 20/09/2026

3 matches

19:30

Levski Sofia

Ludogorets
Void
→
16:45

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1

CSKA Sofia 1

xG 0.62 – 1.27 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

→
14:15

FK Spartak Varna 0

Lokomotiv Sofia 1

xG 2.19 – 1.01 Lower-xG side won

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→

Saturday, 19/09/2026

3 matches

18:00

Arda Kardzhali 1

Cherno More Varna 1

xG 1.38 – 1.34 Level on xG

Pre-match probabilities

→
15:30

FK Septemvri Sofia 0

Botev Plovdiv 3

xG 1.08 – 1.53 Level on xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
13:00

FK Dunav Ruse 2

Botev Vratsa 2

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→

Friday, 18/09/2026

1 match

19:00

Slavia Sofia 1

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 2

xG 2.43 – 1.96 Level on xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→

Wednesday, 16/09/2026

1 match

18:00

Lokomotiv Sofia 0

CSKA Sofia 2

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→

Monday, 14/09/2026

1 match

19:30

Ludogorets 2

FK Septemvri Sofia 1

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→

Sunday, 13/09/2026

3 matches

19:30

Botev Plovdiv 2

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0

xG 1.05 – 0.87 Level on xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
16:45

Botev Vratsa 0

Levski Sofia 0

xG 0.79 – 2.01 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

→
14:15

Slavia Sofia 0

FK Spartak Varna 0

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→

Saturday, 12/09/2026

2 matches

20:15

CSKA Sofia 4

Arda Kardzhali 1

xG 3.10 – 0.87 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
18:00

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 2

FK Dunav Ruse 1

xG 2.62 – 0.88 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→

Friday, 11/09/2026

1 match

20:00

Cherno More Varna 2

Lokomotiv Sofia 2

xG 1.71 – 1.66 Level on xG

Pre-match probabilities

→

Monday, 07/09/2026

1 match

19:30

FK Dunav Ruse 0

Slavia Sofia 1

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→

Sunday, 06/09/2026

2 matches

20:15

Lokomotiv Sofia 1

Ludogorets 2

xG 0.75 – 3.62 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
18:00

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1

Cherno More Varna 0

xG 0.51 – 0.88 Level on xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→

Saturday, 05/09/2026

2 matches

20:15

Levski Sofia 1

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 0

xG 1.71 – 1.35 Level on xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
18:00

FK Spartak Varna 1

CSKA Sofia 1

xG 0.79 – 3.50 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

→

Friday, 04/09/2026

2 matches

20:15

Arda Kardzhali 2

Botev Plovdiv 3

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→
18:00

FK Septemvri Sofia 2

Botev Vratsa 3

xG 1.37 – 0.99 Level on xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→

Wednesday, 02/09/2026

1 match

19:00

Slavia Sofia 1

Levski Sofia 2

xG 0.32 – 2.34 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→

Monday, 31/08/2026

2 matches

20:15

Arda Kardzhali 2

Botev Vratsa 0

No pre-match probabilities
→
18:00

FK Dunav Ruse 2

Lokomotiv Sofia 2

xG 2.57 – 2.14 Level on xG

No pre-match probabilities
→

Sunday, 30/08/2026

3 matches

20:15

CSKA Sofia 3

Cherno More Varna 1

No pre-match probabilities
→
18:00

Botev Plovdiv 1

Levski Sofia 3

xG 1.72 – 0.66 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
→
18:00

FK Spartak Varna 1

Ludogorets 1

No pre-match probabilities
→

Saturday, 29/08/2026

2 matches

17:00

Arda Kardzhali

Botev Vratsa
Void
→
17:00

FK Dunav Ruse

Lokomotiv Sofia
Void
→

Friday, 28/08/2026

2 matches

20:15

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 2

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0

xG 0.80 – 0.88 Level on xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
18:00

Slavia Sofia 1

FK Septemvri Sofia 1

xG 0.46 – 0.95 Level on xG

No pre-match probabilities
→

Monday, 24/08/2026

2 matches

20:15

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0

Arda Kardzhali 1

No pre-match probabilities
→
18:00

Botev Vratsa 1

Botev Plovdiv 0

xG 0.54 – 0.77 Level on xG

No pre-match probabilities
→

Sunday, 23/08/2026

1 match

18:00

FK Septemvri Sofia 1

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 0

xG 0.49 – 1.03 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
→

Saturday, 22/08/2026

4 matches

20:15

Levski Sofia 6

FK Spartak Varna 0

xG 3.70 – 0.00 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
18:00

Ludogorets 1

Slavia Sofia 1

No pre-match probabilities
→
17:00

Lokomotiv Sofia

CSKA Sofia
Void
→
17:00

Botev Vratsa

Botev Plovdiv
Void
→

Friday, 21/08/2026

1 match

20:15

Cherno More Varna 3

FK Dunav Ruse 1

No pre-match probabilities
→

Monday, 17/08/2026

2 matches

20:15

Arda Kardzhali 3

Lokomotiv Sofia 1

xG 0.91 – 0.71 Level on xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
18:00

FK Spartak Varna 0

FK Septemvri Sofia 1

xG 0.73 – 1.04 Level on xG

No pre-match probabilities
→

Sunday, 16/08/2026

2 matches

20:15

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1

FK Dunav Ruse 2

No pre-match probabilities
→
18:00

CSKA Sofia 5

Botev Vratsa 0

No pre-match probabilities
→

Saturday, 15/08/2026

1 match

20:15

Ludogorets 2

Botev Plovdiv 0

xG 2.58 – 0.81 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→

Friday, 14/08/2026

1 match

20:15

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 4

Cherno More Varna 1

No pre-match probabilities
→

Monday, 10/08/2026

2 matches

20:15

Botev Plovdiv 3

FK Spartak Varna 2

No pre-match probabilities
→
18:00

Botev Vratsa 0

Slavia Sofia 3

xG 0.93 – 1.09 Level on xG

No pre-match probabilities
→

Sunday, 09/08/2026

2 matches

20:15

FK Septemvri Sofia 0

CSKA Sofia 3

No pre-match probabilities
→
18:00

Cherno More Varna 2

Ludogorets 3

xG 0.68 – 1.50 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→

xG is a model estimate of the chances each side created. "Went with the xG" means the side with more xG won; "Went against the xG" means the side with less xG won or the match was drawn across a gap of at least 0.5. The probabilities are the ones the model published before kickoff, rounded so the three add to 100; the outline marks what happened.