Friday, 06/11/2026 at 21:00
16d 0h to kick-offDerby County – Bolton Wanderers
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Derby County
- 36%
- Draw
- 31%
- Bolton Wanderers
- 33%
| Derby County | Draw | Bolton Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.80 | 3.21 | 3.02 |
- Total goals
- 2.59
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
36% Derby County to win
- Attack
- 16th vs 14th
- Derby County attack v Bolton Wanderers defence
- Defence
- 17th vs 10th
- Derby County defence v Bolton Wanderers attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.16 vs -0.07
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.32 – 1.27
- Derby County v Bolton Wanderers
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Derby County | Bolton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.96 · 23rd | (better) 1.40 · 11th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.65 · 20th | 1.69 · 21st |
| xGD / match | -0.69 · 21st | (better) -0.30 · 17th |
| xPts / match | 1.07 · 18th | (better) 1.15 · 17th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.16 | (better) -0.07 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Derby County clean sheet
- 25%
- Derby County 2+ goals
- 39%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 41%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.9%
- 2:1
- 9.7%
- 1:2
- 9.3%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Derby County sample
- 20 matches
- Bolton Wanderers sample
- 11 matches
- Home xG sample · Derby County
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Bolton Wanderers
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.