Championship

Championship results 2026/2027

Every Championship match played this season, newest first, with the xG each side created and the home, draw and away probabilities the model held before kickoff.

xG reading

All Went with the xG Went against the xG

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Model record

Most likely outcome landed in 12 of 25 matches (48%). The probabilities implied about 11 (46%). Brier score 0.65 (reference 0.67; lower is better). How the model works →

Home
Draw
Away

What happened Most likely outcome Upset

Saturday, 17/10/2026

3 matches

16:00

Southampton 0

Bolton Wanderers 0

xG 1.87 – 1.22 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

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13:30

Millwall 2

Lincoln City 2

xG 1.84 – 0.73 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

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13:30

Middlesbrough 2

Cardiff City 2

xG 2.71 – 0.85 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

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Tuesday, 13/10/2026

3 matches

20:45

Wolverhampton 1

Bolton Wanderers 3

xG 2.23 – 1.62 Lower-xG side won

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
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20:45

Burnley 2

Charlton Athletic 2

xG 1.08 – 2.13 Draw with an xG gap

Pre-match probabilities

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20:45

Bristol City 0

Blackburn Rovers 1

xG 1.89 – 0.15 Lower-xG side won

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
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Saturday, 10/10/2026

3 matches

16:00

Derby County 1

Wrexham 1

xG 0.60 – 1.46 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
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16:00

Bolton Wanderers 1

Stoke City 2

xG 3.13 – 0.74 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
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16:00

Sheffield United 3

Lincoln City 0

xG 0.68 – 1.39 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
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Saturday, 19/09/2026

7 matches

16:00

Wrexham 2

Southampton 1

xG 0.54 – 2.08 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
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16:00

Queens Park Rangers 2

Preston North End 2

xG 2.54 – 1.50 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
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16:00

Portsmouth 2

Blackburn Rovers 2

xG 1.60 – 0.59 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
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16:00

Lincoln City 1

Swansea City 2

xG 2.11 – 0.92 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
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16:00

Burnley 1

Derby County 1

xG 0.45 – 1.75 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
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16:00

Birmingham City 2

Middlesbrough 2

xG 1.23 – 2.14 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
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13:30

Millwall 2

West Ham United 2

xG 2.68 – 1.87 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
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Tuesday, 15/09/2026

1 match

20:45

Bristol City 0

Lincoln City 1

xG 1.53 – 0.53 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
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Saturday, 12/09/2026

3 matches

16:00

Southampton 4

Bristol City 1

xG 1.71 – 2.24 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
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13:30

West Bromwich Albion 1

Queens Park Rangers 1

xG 1.22 – 0.62 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
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13:30

Bolton Wanderers 1

Cardiff City 0

xG 0.48 – 1.79 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
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Wednesday, 09/09/2026

3 matches

21:00

Charlton Athletic 0

Queens Park Rangers 0

xG 0.48 – 1.10 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
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20:45

Norwich City 2

Birmingham City 1

xG 1.01 – 1.63 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
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20:45

Derby County 0

West Bromwich Albion 1

xG 1.27 – 0.38 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
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Tuesday, 08/09/2026

3 matches

20:45

Watford 2

Preston North End 1

xG 1.44 – 2.48 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
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20:45

Cardiff City 1

Stoke City 1

xG 3.60 – 1.11 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
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20:45

Blackburn Rovers 1

Sheffield United 2

xG 1.62 – 0.66 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
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Sunday, 06/09/2026

1 match

13:00

Birmingham City 2

Wolverhampton 2

xG 1.39 – 2.47 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
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Saturday, 05/09/2026

1 match

13:30

Lincoln City 1

Southampton 1

xG 2.27 – 0.77 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
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Wednesday, 02/09/2026

1 match

21:00

Burnley 1

Middlesbrough 1

xG 0.64 – 1.22 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
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Tuesday, 01/09/2026

3 matches

21:00

Stoke City 1

Norwich City 0

xG 0.22 – 1.44 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
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21:00

Birmingham City 1

Southampton 1

xG 1.55 – 1.02 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
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20:45

Lincoln City 0

Blackburn Rovers 0

xG 1.46 – 0.24 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
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Saturday, 29/08/2026

5 matches

16:00

Watford 1

West Ham United 1

xG 1.60 – 0.89 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
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16:00

Charlton Athletic 1

Preston North End 0

xG 0.74 – 1.32 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
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16:00

Cardiff City 2

Sheffield United 2

xG 2.24 – 1.28 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
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16:00

Bristol City 2

Portsmouth 1

xG 0.61 – 1.37 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
→
16:00

Bolton Wanderers 0

Lincoln City 1

xG 1.89 – 1.32 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
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Saturday, 22/08/2026

7 matches

16:00

Wrexham 1

Watford 1

xG 1.92 – 0.65 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
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16:00

West Ham United 1

Charlton Athletic 2

xG 2.84 – 0.62 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
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16:00

Swansea City 0

Sheffield United 0

xG 0.57 – 1.46 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
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16:00

Queens Park Rangers 0

Bolton Wanderers 0

xG 1.82 – 0.19 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
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16:00

Blackburn Rovers 2

Middlesbrough 1

xG 0.91 – 1.43 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
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13:30

Lincoln City 1

Portsmouth 3

xG 2.32 – 1.21 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
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13:30

Birmingham City 2

Bristol City 2

xG 1.98 – 1.43 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
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Monday, 17/08/2026

1 match

21:00

Cardiff City 1

Wrexham 1

xG 0.90 – 1.43 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
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Sunday, 16/08/2026

2 matches

17:00

Burnley 2

West Ham United 2

xG 2.33 – 1.33 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
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14:30

Watford 2

Southampton 1

xG 0.81 – 1.71 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
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Saturday, 15/08/2026

1 match

16:00

Norwich City 1

West Bromwich Albion 2

xG 2.96 – 1.85 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
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Friday, 14/08/2026

1 match

21:00

Wolverhampton 2

Blackburn Rovers 2

xG 1.97 – 0.84 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
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xG is a model estimate of the chances each side created. "Went with the xG" means the side with more xG won; "Went against the xG" means the side with less xG won or the match was drawn across a gap of at least 0.5. The probabilities are the ones the model published before kickoff, rounded so the three add to 100; the outline marks what happened.