Championship

Championship results 2026/2027

Every Championship match played this season, newest first, with the xG each side created and the home, draw and away probabilities the model held before kickoff.

xG reading

All Went with the xG Went against the xG

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Model record

Most likely outcome landed in 12 of 25 matches (48%). The probabilities implied about 11 (46%). Brier score 0.65 (reference 0.67; lower is better). How the model works →

Home
Draw
Away

What happened Most likely outcome Upset

Saturday, 17/10/2026

5 matches

16:00

Wrexham 4

Preston North End 1

xG 1.86 – 0.72 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
16:00

West Bromwich Albion 3

Blackburn Rovers 2

xG 3.68 – 0.82 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
16:00

Norwich City 0

Portsmouth 1

xG 0.29 – 1.19 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→
16:00

Bristol City 0

Sheffield United 1

xG 0.50 – 1.18 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→
13:30

Watford 2

Charlton Athletic 0

xG 2.78 – 1.25 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→

Friday, 16/10/2026

1 match

21:00

Burnley 1

Wolverhampton 2

xG 1.00 – 1.82 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→

Wednesday, 14/10/2026

3 matches

21:00

Lincoln City 0

West Ham United 6

xG 0.35 – 3.20 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
20:45

Queens Park Rangers 4

Derby County 1

xG 1.52 – 0.85 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
20:45

Norwich City 0

Southampton 1

xG 1.07 – 2.34 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→

Tuesday, 13/10/2026

5 matches

21:00

Stoke City 2

Middlesbrough 3

xG 0.65 – 2.57 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
21:00

Birmingham City 4

Preston North End 0

xG 2.24 – 0.49 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
20:45

Wrexham 1

West Bromwich Albion 2

xG 0.38 – 0.94 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→
20:45

Millwall 0

Swansea City 1

xG 1.05 – 1.83 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
→
20:45

Cardiff City 5

Watford 1

xG 3.67 – 1.46 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→

Saturday, 10/10/2026

4 matches

16:00

Blackburn Rovers 2

Cardiff City 1

xG 2.42 – 1.05 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
16:00

Watford 0

Burnley 4

xG 0.64 – 1.94 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
13:30

West Bromwich Albion 0

Birmingham City 1

xG 1.05 – 2.55 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
13:30

Swansea City 2

Norwich City 1

xG 2.36 – 0.68 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
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Sunday, 20/09/2026

1 match

13:00

Wolverhampton 1

West Bromwich Albion 0

xG 1.95 – 0.29 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
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Saturday, 19/09/2026

1 match

13:30

Cardiff City 3

Charlton Athletic 1

xG 2.60 – 1.26 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
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Friday, 18/09/2026

1 match

21:00

Bristol City 1

Watford 0

xG 1.47 – 0.57 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
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Sunday, 13/09/2026

1 match

13:00

Sheffield United 0

Wolverhampton 1

xG 0.63 – 1.57 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→

Saturday, 12/09/2026

3 matches

16:00

Watford 1

Stoke City 2

xG 0.39 – 1.50 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
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16:00

Swansea City 3

Burnley 1

xG 2.63 – 1.73 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
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13:30

Derby County 1

Birmingham City 2

xG 1.11 – 3.17 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
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Friday, 11/09/2026

1 match

21:00

West Ham United 6

Wrexham 0

xG 2.96 – 0.44 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
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Tuesday, 08/09/2026

1 match

21:00

Bolton Wanderers 2

West Ham United 3

xG 1.56 – 2.22 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
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Saturday, 05/09/2026

8 matches

16:00

West Ham United 3

Derby County 0

xG 3.79 – 0.11 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
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16:00

Sheffield United 1

Norwich City 3

xG 0.79 – 3.04 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
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16:00

Queens Park Rangers 0

Middlesbrough 1

xG 1.03 – 2.53 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
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16:00

Portsmouth 2

Cardiff City 0

xG 2.07 – 1.37 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
16:00

Millwall 4

Bolton Wanderers 0

xG 2.63 – 1.15 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
16:00

Burnley 1

Bristol City 2

xG 0.26 – 1.06 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
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13:30

Stoke City 4

Charlton Athletic 0

xG 2.14 – 0.61 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
13:30

Preston North End 2

Blackburn Rovers 1

xG 2.19 – 1.09 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
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Wednesday, 02/09/2026

2 matches

20:45

Queens Park Rangers 2

Cardiff City 1

xG 2.09 – 0.60 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
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20:45

Millwall 0

Wrexham 3

xG 0.23 – 0.88 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
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Tuesday, 01/09/2026

2 matches

20:45

West Ham United 4

Wolverhampton 2

xG 2.05 – 0.94 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
20:45

Swansea City 2

Watford 0

xG 2.71 – 0.88 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
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Saturday, 29/08/2026

5 matches

16:00

Southampton 5

Millwall 1

xG 3.62 – 1.35 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
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16:00

Norwich City 4

Burnley 1

xG 2.30 – 1.38 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
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13:30

Wolverhampton 4

Stoke City 1

xG 2.66 – 0.83 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
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13:30

Middlesbrough 3

West Bromwich Albion 1

xG 2.46 – 1.40 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
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13:30

Derby County 0

Swansea City 3

xG 0.70 – 3.00 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
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Saturday, 22/08/2026

3 matches

16:00

Southampton 3

Stoke City 1

xG 2.32 – 0.93 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
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16:00

Preston North End 1

Wolverhampton 3

xG 0.66 – 1.54 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
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13:30

Millwall 3

Norwich City 0

xG 2.69 – 1.02 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
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Saturday, 15/08/2026

2 matches

16:00

Middlesbrough 2

Lincoln City 1

xG 2.23 – 0.57 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
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16:00

Bristol City 0

Millwall 2

xG 0.52 – 3.40 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→

xG is a model estimate of the chances each side created. "Went with the xG" means the side with more xG won; "Went against the xG" means the side with less xG won or the match was drawn across a gap of at least 0.5. The probabilities are the ones the model published before kickoff, rounded so the three add to 100; the outline marks what happened.