Championship results 2026/2027
Every Championship match played this season, newest first, with the xG each side created and the home, draw and away probabilities the model held before kickoff.
Model record
Most likely outcome landed in 12 of 25 matches (48%). The probabilities implied about 11 (46%). Brier score 0.65 (reference 0.67; lower is better). How the model works →
- Home
- Draw
- Away
Saturday, 29/08/2026
7 matches-
xG 2.24 – 1.28 Draw with an xG gapNo pre-match probabilities→
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xG 0.61 – 1.37 Lower-xG side wonNo pre-match probabilities→
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xG 1.89 – 1.32 Lower-xG side wonNo pre-match probabilities→
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xG 0.92 – 1.34 Level on xGNo pre-match probabilities→
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xG 2.66 – 0.83 Followed the xGNo pre-match probabilities→
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xG 2.46 – 1.40 Followed the xGNo pre-match probabilities→
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xG 0.70 – 3.00 Followed the xGNo pre-match probabilities→
Friday, 28/08/2026
1 match-
xG 1.42 – 1.62 Level on xGNo pre-match probabilities→
Sunday, 23/08/2026
1 match-
xG 1.63 – 1.18 Level on xGNo pre-match probabilities→
Saturday, 22/08/2026
11 matches-
xG 1.92 – 0.65 Draw with an xG gapNo pre-match probabilities→
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xG 2.84 – 0.62 Lower-xG side wonNo pre-match probabilities→
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xG 0.57 – 1.46 Draw with an xG gapNo pre-match probabilities→
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xG 2.32 – 0.93 Followed the xGNo pre-match probabilities→
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xG 1.82 – 0.19 Draw with an xG gapNo pre-match probabilities→
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xG 0.66 – 1.54 Followed the xGNo pre-match probabilities→
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xG 1.62 – 1.98 Level on xGNo pre-match probabilities→
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xG 0.91 – 1.43 Lower-xG side wonNo pre-match probabilities→
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Millwall 3xG 2.69 – 1.02 Followed the xGNo pre-match probabilities→
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xG 2.32 – 1.21 Lower-xG side wonNo pre-match probabilities→
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xG 1.98 – 1.43 Draw with an xG gapNo pre-match probabilities→
Monday, 17/08/2026
1 matchSunday, 16/08/2026
2 matchesSaturday, 15/08/2026
8 matches-
xG 0.29 – 0.77 Level on xGNo pre-match probabilities→
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xG 0.65 – 0.62 Level on xGNo pre-match probabilities→
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xG 2.17 – 2.07 Level on xGNo pre-match probabilities→
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xG 2.96 – 1.85 Lower-xG side wonNo pre-match probabilities→
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xG 2.23 – 0.57 Followed the xGNo pre-match probabilities→
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xG 0.97 – 1.00 Level on xGNo pre-match probabilities→
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Millwall 2xG 0.52 – 3.40 Followed the xGNo pre-match probabilities→
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xG 1.10 – 1.12 Level on xGNo pre-match probabilities→
Friday, 14/08/2026
1 match-
xG 1.97 – 0.84 Draw with an xG gapNo pre-match probabilities→
xG is a model estimate of the chances each side created. "Went with the xG" means the side with more xG won; "Went against the xG" means the side with less xG won or the match was drawn across a gap of at least 0.5. The probabilities are the ones the model published before kickoff, rounded so the three add to 100; the outline marks what happened.