Championship

Championship results 2026/2027

Every Championship match played this season, newest first, with the xG each side created and the home, draw and away probabilities the model held before kickoff.

xG reading

All Went with the xG Went against the xG

Model record

Most likely outcome landed in 12 of 25 matches (48%). The probabilities implied about 11 (46%). Brier score 0.65 (reference 0.67; lower is better). How the model works →

Home
Draw
Away

What happened Most likely outcome Upset

Tuesday, 15/09/2026

1 match

20:45

Bristol City 0

Lincoln City 1

xG 1.53 – 0.53 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
→

Sunday, 13/09/2026

1 match

13:00

Sheffield United 0

Wolverhampton 1

xG 0.63 – 1.57 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→

Saturday, 12/09/2026

10 matches

16:00

Watford 1

Stoke City 2

xG 0.39 – 1.50 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
16:00

Swansea City 3

Burnley 1

xG 2.63 – 1.73 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
16:00

Southampton 4

Bristol City 1

xG 1.71 – 2.24 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
→
16:00

Preston North End 0

Lincoln City 1

xG 0.58 – 0.66 Level on xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
16:00

Middlesbrough 4

Norwich City 3

xG 2.07 – 1.62 Level on xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
16:00

Charlton Athletic 0

Portsmouth 0

xG 0.82 – 0.40 Level on xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
16:00

Blackburn Rovers 3

Millwall 1

xG 1.23 – 1.67 Level on xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
13:30

West Bromwich Albion 1

Queens Park Rangers 1

xG 1.22 – 0.62 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
→
13:30

Derby County 1

Birmingham City 2

xG 1.11 – 3.17 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
13:30

Bolton Wanderers 1

Cardiff City 0

xG 0.48 – 1.79 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
→

Friday, 11/09/2026

1 match

21:00

West Ham United 6

Wrexham 0

xG 2.96 – 0.44 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→

Wednesday, 09/09/2026

3 matches

21:00

Charlton Athletic 0

Queens Park Rangers 0

xG 0.48 – 1.10 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
→
20:45

Norwich City 2

Birmingham City 1

xG 1.01 – 1.63 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
→
20:45

Derby County 0

West Bromwich Albion 1

xG 1.27 – 0.38 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
→

Tuesday, 08/09/2026

6 matches

21:00

Bolton Wanderers 2

West Ham United 3

xG 1.56 – 2.22 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
20:45

Wrexham 1

Burnley 1

xG 1.35 – 1.50 Level on xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
20:45

Watford 2

Preston North End 1

xG 1.44 – 2.48 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
→
20:45

Southampton 3

Swansea City 1

xG 1.44 – 1.22 Level on xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
20:45

Cardiff City 1

Stoke City 1

xG 3.60 – 1.11 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
→
20:45

Blackburn Rovers 1

Sheffield United 2

xG 1.62 – 0.66 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
→

Sunday, 06/09/2026

1 match

13:00

Birmingham City 2

Wolverhampton 2

xG 1.39 – 2.47 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
→

Saturday, 05/09/2026

11 matches

21:00

Swansea City 0

Wrexham 0

xG 0.74 – 0.67 Level on xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
16:00

West Ham United 3

Derby County 0

xG 3.79 – 0.11 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
16:00

West Bromwich Albion 1

Watford 0

xG 1.14 – 1.26 Level on xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
16:00

Sheffield United 1

Norwich City 3

xG 0.79 – 3.04 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
16:00

Queens Park Rangers 0

Middlesbrough 1

xG 1.03 – 2.53 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
16:00

Portsmouth 2

Cardiff City 0

xG 2.07 – 1.37 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
16:00

Millwall 4

Bolton Wanderers 0

xG 2.63 – 1.15 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
16:00

Burnley 1

Bristol City 2

xG 0.26 – 1.06 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
13:30

Stoke City 4

Charlton Athletic 0

xG 2.14 – 0.61 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
13:30

Preston North End 2

Blackburn Rovers 1

xG 2.19 – 1.09 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
13:30

Lincoln City 1

Southampton 1

xG 2.27 – 0.77 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
→

Wednesday, 02/09/2026

4 matches

21:00

Burnley 1

Middlesbrough 1

xG 0.64 – 1.22 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
→
20:45

West Bromwich Albion 1

Charlton Athletic 1

xG 0.57 – 0.39 Level on xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
20:45

Queens Park Rangers 2

Cardiff City 1

xG 2.09 – 0.60 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
20:45

Millwall 0

Wrexham 3

xG 0.23 – 0.88 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→

Tuesday, 01/09/2026

8 matches

21:00

Stoke City 1

Norwich City 0

xG 0.22 – 1.44 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
→
21:00

Birmingham City 1

Southampton 1

xG 1.55 – 1.02 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
→
20:45

West Ham United 4

Wolverhampton 2

xG 2.05 – 0.94 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
20:45

Swansea City 2

Watford 0

xG 2.71 – 0.88 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
20:45

Sheffield United 3

Bolton Wanderers 2

xG 2.21 – 1.91 Level on xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
20:45

Preston North End 1

Bristol City 3

xG 1.91 – 1.78 Level on xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
20:45

Portsmouth 0

Derby County 2

xG 0.84 – 0.55 Level on xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
20:45

Lincoln City 0

Blackburn Rovers 0

xG 1.46 – 0.24 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
→

Saturday, 29/08/2026

4 matches

16:00

Watford 1

West Ham United 1

xG 1.60 – 0.89 Draw with an xG gap

No pre-match probabilities
→
16:00

Southampton 5

Millwall 1

xG 3.62 – 1.35 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
16:00

Norwich City 4

Burnley 1

xG 2.30 – 1.38 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
16:00

Charlton Athletic 1

Preston North End 0

xG 0.74 – 1.32 Lower-xG side won

No pre-match probabilities
→

xG is a model estimate of the chances each side created. "Went with the xG" means the side with more xG won; "Went against the xG" means the side with less xG won or the match was drawn across a gap of at least 0.5. The probabilities are the ones the model published before kickoff, rounded so the three add to 100; the outline marks what happened.